Application of Trip Generation Models for Urban Transport Planning In a Data Scarce Developing Country City: The Case of Dar es Salaam

Abstract

With the increase in travel demand and traffic management problems in many developing
countries cities, travel demand forecasting models are being employed increasingly to
make informed decisions about the operational improvements to the existing transportation
system and the design and performance of future transportation systems. The main
advantage of using travel demand forecasting models for such purposes is that they are
capable of capturing the interactive effects of different components of the system under
study. However, for some time now there have been concerns about the application of
transport planning models in developing countries. The concerns have been mainly in
relation to the variables, coefficients and models borrowed from developed countries. This
paper first discusses the characteristics of transport problems in developing cities and
provides a review of trip generation modelling approaches. Then, the discussion extends
further to cover available data for urban transport planning and trip generation models
that have found application in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. The paper concludes by
highlighting how available data sources and trip generation modelling approach can be
improved to cope with the dynamic conditions in Dar es Salaam.